Interactive regressions

Coming with v1 โ€” runs in your browser via WebR

Status: preview placeholder. The full WebR-powered regression module ships together with the complete 3-LLM corpus (Sonnet โœ“, GPT-4.1-mini โœ“, Gemini Flash in progress). Today you can browse all scores in the Browse view and inspect per-manifesto evidence on each manifesto page.

What this page will let you do

Pick the sample, pick the score construction, pick the regression spec โ€” everything runs client-side in your browser, no server, no upload.

Inputs

  • Country filter (multi-select; e.g. just Spain + Germany)
  • Year range slider (1945 โ€“ 2025)
  • Model selection โ€” include any subset of the three LLM families
  • Within-manifesto aggregation โ€” confidence-weighted mean (default), plain mean, median, or max-evidence weighting
  • Between-model aggregation โ€” mean, median, leave-worst-out
  • Outcome dimension โ€” any of the four liberalism dimensions or the overall index
  • Specification โ€” FE choice (country, year, country ร— year), SE clustering

Outputs

  • The regression coefficient on populism_overall with 95 % CI
  • Sample size after filtering, Rยฒ within
  • A coefficient plot showing how the answer moves when you flip one choice at a time
  • A link to the specification curve for your current selection โ€” the distribution of coefficients across ~9,000 defensible specifications, visualised ร  la Simonsohn et al. (2020) and Menkveld et al. (2024)

Why it matters

Without this view, a single point estimate hides researcher degrees of freedom. With it, you see all the answers the data could plausibly give โ€” and judge for yourself whether the headline holds up.

Specification-curve sketch โ€” placeholder

Once the full corpus is in, this section will show the live curve. Below is a stylised illustration of what it will look like (not from real data):

When does the live version go up?

The Gemini full-corpus run is the last piece. Status: ~3,327 manifestos, batch-checkpointed, ~5h wall clock. As soon as it lands, this page is rewired to a WebR module reading the live parquet from the Hugging Face dataset.