Populism-LLM
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  • Per-dimension pairwise correlations
  • Disagreement-flagged outliers
  • Score distribution by model
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Cross-model agreement

Where the three LLMs converge and where they diverge

🚧 PREVIEW / DRAFT · Working paper, not peer-reviewed. Numbers and methodology may change. Do not cite — sebastian.stoeckl@uni.li.

Per-dimension pairwise correlations

Dimension Pair n Pearson Spearman Mean |gap|
Anti-Elitism sonnet ↔︎ gpt41mini 2915 0.806 0.808 1.05
People-Centrism sonnet ↔︎ gpt41mini 3096 0.659 0.670 1.22
Manichaean Worldview sonnet ↔︎ gpt41mini 2635 0.799 0.783 1.12
Populism (Overall) sonnet ↔︎ gpt41mini 3026 0.785 0.782 1.14
Ideology — Left sonnet ↔︎ gpt41mini 3072 0.857 0.870 1.34
Ideology — Right sonnet ↔︎ gpt41mini 2725 0.822 0.756 1.41
Ideology — Centrist sonnet ↔︎ gpt41mini 3090 0.413 0.395 3.00
Ideology (Right − Left) sonnet ↔︎ gpt41mini 3131 0.661 0.696 1.56
Political Liberalism sonnet ↔︎ gpt41mini 3129 0.795 0.686 0.89
Social Liberalism sonnet ↔︎ gpt41mini 3081 0.845 0.808 0.82
Economic Liberalism sonnet ↔︎ gpt41mini 2894 0.756 0.755 1.35
Financial-Market Liberalism sonnet ↔︎ gpt41mini 2517 0.687 0.676 1.23
Liberalism (Overall) sonnet ↔︎ gpt41mini 3030 0.747 0.619 1.06

Disagreement-flagged outliers

Manifestos where the three models disagree by more than 3 points on populism_overall:

doc_id Country Party Year sonnet gpt41mini Range
35210_198304 Portugal UDP 1983 10.0 3.0 7.000000
11620_202209 Sweden MSP 2022 3.0 8.0 5.000000
13210_197312 Denmark VS 1973 8.0 3.0 5.000000
22527_199405 Netherlands GPV 1994 2.0 7.0 5.000000
22321_201703 Netherlands DENK 2017 2.0 7.0 5.000000
31220_200206 France PCF 2002 8.0 3.0 5.000000
34210_200709 Greece KKE 2007 8.0 3.0 5.000000
43220_200310 Switzerland PdAS/PdTS 2003 8.0 3.0 5.000000
72071_201904 Israel 2019 3.0 8.0 5.000000
72072_201909 Israel 2019 3.0 8.0 5.000000
87071_202210 Latvia 2022 2.0 7.0 5.000000
98221_199404 Ukraine KPU 1994 8.0 3.0 5.000000
98221_200709 Ukraine KPU 2007 9.0 4.0 5.000000
22320_198605 Netherlands PvdA 1986 2.3 7.0 4.666667
23113_201310 Luxembourg 2013 2.3 7.0 4.666667
12221_198109 Norway SV 1981 7.0 2.5 4.500000
34313_200910 Greece PASOK 2009 2.5 7.0 4.500000
51320_199705 United Kingdom Labour 1997 3.5 8.0 4.500000
160061_201405 Panama AEPP 2014 3.5 8.0 4.500000
88320_201210 Lithuania LSDP 2012 2.7 7.0 4.333333
11110_202209 Sweden MP 2022 3.0 7.0 4.000000
14420_197003 Finland LKP 1970 2.0 6.0 4.000000
14620_198303 Finland KK 1983 2.0 6.0 4.000000
14223_199503 Finland VAS 1995 2.0 6.0 4.000000
14110_201504 Finland VL 2015 3.0 7.0 4.000000
22210_194605 Netherlands CPN 1946 7.0 3.0 4.000000
22330_197104 Netherlands D’66 1971 2.0 6.0 4.000000
23320_200906 Luxembourg LSAP/POSL 2009 3.0 7.0 4.000000
32420_197205 Italy PLI 1972 4.0 8.0 4.000000
35311_198304 Portugal PS 1983 3.0 7.0 4.000000
35311_200502 Portugal PS 2005 2.0 6.0 4.000000
35220_202201 Portugal PCP 2022 8.0 4.0 4.000000
42320_199910 Austria SPÖ 1999 3.0 7.0 4.000000
51110_201706 United Kingdom GPEW 2017 4.0 8.0 4.000000
53620_199706 Ireland 1997 3.0 7.0 4.000000
63710_201905 Australia KAT 2019 6.0 2.0 4.000000
64110_200509 New Zealand Greens 2005 3.0 7.0 4.000000
64901_200811 New Zealand 2008 3.0 7.0 4.000000
64901_201111 New Zealand 2011 3.0 7.0 4.000000
64901_201709 New Zealand 2017 3.0 7.0 4.000000

Score distribution by model

Stoeckl S. (2026). Populism-LLM v1. DOI: tba

 
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